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Fallstricke beim Kauf Von Unternehmen

22. July 2013 Kommentare geschlossen

Fehlgeschlagene Unternehmensakquisitionen sind häufig Folge mangelhaften Berichtswesens und unzureichender Prüfung des Zielobjektes. Deloitte verrät, welche Fragen in unterschiedlichen Phasen des Unternehmenskaufes gestellt und welche Fallstricke vermieden werden sollten.

Expansion durch Akquisition – eine Strategie, die schnelleres Wachstum und höhere Renditen verspricht als organisches Wachstum allein. Der Pfad ist strukturiert und folgt meist dem gleichen Muster: das Zielunternehmen ist gefunden, vorläufige Due Diligence wurde durchgeführt, eine erste Bewertung steht und eine Kaufabsichtserklärung („Letter of Intent“) liegt unterschrieben in den Schubladen des Käufers und Verkäufers. Doch dann scheitert der Deal. Was wie der Albtraum vieler CFOs und M&A Berater klingt, kommt in der Praxis häufig vor. Oft begründet sich das Scheitern in mangelhaftem Berichtswesen oder unzureichender Prüfung des Zielobjektes. Ist die Transaktion einmal abgeschlossen, scheitern die meisten Projekte an dürftigem Integrations- und Synergiemanagement. Durch bessere Vorbereitung und gezielte Fragen können solche Situationen vermieden oder frühzeitig entschärft werden. Weiterlesen…

Dr. Victor Purtscher speaker at the annual Linde Business Valuation forum 2012

31. July 2012 Kommentare geschlossen

Victor Purtscher will be one of the speakers at this year’s Linde Business Valuation forum. The team of speakersconsists of renowned experts and will discuss crucial topics such as Cash Flow Forecasts, Business Plan Validations and Peer-Group Analyses with the help of case studies and practical examples. The event will be moderated by Dr. Klaus Rabel and takes place at the Flemings Hotel Wien Westbahnhof on October 3, 2012.

For more information on the conference click here

Kategorien: Unternehmensbewertung Schlagwörter:

Dr. Purtscher speaker at the IACVA 6th Annual Business Valuation Conference

10. July 2012 Kommentare geschlossen

Dr. Purtscher, Partner and Head of the Valuation team will hold a workshop on Business Plan Validation at this year’s IACVA Business Valuation Conference for the third time along with well-known academics such as Prof. Aswath Damodaran, Prof. Hans-Werner Sinn and Prof. Stephen H. Penman.  The conference will take place in Düsseldorf on November 29-30, 2012.
For further information on this year’s conference click here.

Lukas Loderer
lloderer@deloitte.at
Tel: +43 (0)1 537 00 2888

ERP estimation in volatile markets and its implication for investors and financial managers

2. May 2012 Kommentare geschlossen

Equity risk premiums are defined as the excess return that investors require above the risk-free rate for investing in stocks. Equity risk premiums are a major factor not only in investing but also in corporate finance and their estimation has significant consequences for investing, financing and dividend decisions.

Since the financial crisis in 2008, there has been great volatility in the markets and hence in forward-looking equity risk premium (ERP) estimates. Stomas Nicholas and Greg Forsythe (both Deloitte US) found in their new paper,  Are You Mispricing the Investment Risk?  that most companies rely on static forecasts to estimate equity risk premiums. Such static forecasts do not properly incorporate the volatility of markets and thus often misprice the costs of investment risks.  A method which addresses this shortcoming, the implied ERP, uses future cash flow expectations and consequently takes into account current investors’ expectations of risk.

The authors describe the advantages of using the implied ERP approach and further illustrate why investors and managers need to review their ERPs on a regular basis (at least quarterly).

More information on their paper: CFO Insights 

Lukas Loderer
lloderer@deloitte.at
Tel: +43 (0)1 537 00 2888

Kategorien: Unternehmensbewertung Schlagwörter:

Update Parameters

24. February 2012 Keine Kommentare

Market Risk Premium for Austria up to 5.5% (at least)

The market risk premium represents the difference between the expected return of the market portfolio and the risk-free rate. In its latest publication, dated January 17th 2012, the Specialist Committee on the valuation of companies of the Chamber of Certified Public Accountants recommends to currently apply a market risk premium of 5.5% for the Austrian market.

In the light of the already enacted change in the Austrian tax system concerning the taxation of capital gains (a flat rate tax of 25% will be imposed on all capital gains, before this amendment long-term capital gains had been tax free) and the accompanying assimilation of the Austrian to the German tax system, the Specialist Committee believes, until further notice, a market risk premium (before personal income tax) of 4.5% to 5.5% (until now: 4.5% to 5.0%) to be appropriate. In conjunction with the currently observable situation on capital markets the Specialist Committee recommends the use of a market risk premium at the upper end of this suggested range.

Apart from this, there are also a number of other sources which estimate market risk premiums. One very popular is Prof. Damodaran’s website. At the moment, he estimates the market risk premium for mature equity markets, e.g. Austria, at 6.0%. He splits the market risk premium in two separate factors: (1) a risk premium for a mature equity market (estimated from US historical data) and (2) a country risk premium which adjusts the market risk premium for a greater default risk as compared to a mature equity market. The default risk is estimated on the basis of Moody’s country ratings. Since Austria still enjoys highest credibility (according to Moody’s – Standard & Poor’s has already downgraded Austria), his estimate for the market risk premium for Austria equals that of a mature equity market.

As a final remark, we want to stress that especially in the light of the current economic situation, one should keep in mind the need for consistency of all valuation parameters – therefore also the market risk premium needs to be ana-lyzed carefully. It should be noted, that the market risk premium should never be considered as a stand-alone pa-rameter – valuation professionals should rather keep in mind that the single parameters of the discount rate are re-lated to each other and therefore interact with one another. As initially stated, the market risk premium is the differ-ence between the expected return of the market portfolio and the risk-free rate. Hence, those variables have a direct impact on the market risk premium and thus an integrated approach is required. Furthermore, all other assumptions underlying a valuation, e.g. assumptions concerning cash flows, growth rates or the economic situation, should be analyzed and taken into consideration when deriving the discount rate.

Johannes Kroner
jkroner@deloitte.at
+43 (0)1 537 00 2823

Kategorien: Unternehmensbewertung Schlagwörter:

Implications of low risk free rates on valuations

31. January 2012 Keine Kommentare

At the end of 2011 the risk free rate tumbled down to a new all-time low of 2,42%. The unstable situation on financial markets has been steadily fueled by the political instability arising from the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis. Hence, investors lost trust in the markets and are therefore on the search for safer investments. This drives the price of considerably safe investments and thus leads to decreases in effective rates.

As the risk free rate constitutes a fundamental part of the discount rate used for valuations, its development takes effect on the value of businesses and other assets. The end of the year, December 31, is by nature a commonly used valuation date – many business valuations and impairment tests are typically performed on that date. Therefore, the very low risk free rate of this year’s end can be expected to be widely applied. All else equal, a lower risk free rate leads to lower discount rates, which, in turn, lead to higher valuation results. Considering only the direct effects of the risk free rate and ignoring other possibly adverse effects that might go along with a low risk free rate, one would wind up with an inconsistent valuation and unnaturally high values.

As a result, valuation professionals should, amongst other things, specifically pay attention to the consistency of the planning assumptions with the applied discount rate, the determination and level of the market risk premium, or the assumptions regarding the sustainable growth rate.

From a simplified perspective, the nominal risk free rate can be seen as the sum of the “real” risk free rate plus the expected inflation rate. Assuming that the real risk free rate is more or less stable over time, the observed, nominal risk free rate somehow reflects people’s view on the economic future. A low nominal risk free rate implies inflation and real growth expectations at low levels. Hence, these relationships should be considered when analyzing a business plan or determining a sustainable growth rate. Apart from that, the initially described “flight to quality” – the investor’s search for safer investments – also affects, besides the risk free rate, the risk premiums for risky asset clas-ses. Therefore, the equity risk premium can be expected to rise.

Johannes Kroner
jkroner@deloitte.at
+43 1 537 00-2823

Kategorien: Unternehmensbewertung Schlagwörter:

Update Parameters – Riskfree Rate at 2,42% per 31.12.2011

5. January 2012 Keine Kommentare

As of December 31, 2011 the long-term (i.e. 30 years) risk free rate amounted to 2,42% which is a dramatically low level as compared to its history. In fact, the risk free rate marked one after another all-time low in the middle of December and ended the year with another one. The most recent plunge reflects the prevailing uncertainty in financial markets in general. Weiterlesen…

Kategorien: Unternehmensbewertung Schlagwörter:

Buchtipp! „Einführung in die Unternehmensbewertung“ von Aschau-er/Purtscher

12. October 2011 Keine Kommentare

 

Die moderne Unternehmensbewertung stellt hohe Anforderungen an die damit befassten Personen: Sie erfordert Kenntnisse über grundle-gende finanzwirtschaftliche Theorien, Kenntnisse im Bereich der Rechnungslegung, der Statistik und der Ökonomie. Weiterlesen…

Kategorien: Unternehmensbewertung Schlagwörter: